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Post-petroleum era oil refining industry to maintain sustainable development

Date: 2015-07-23
Views: 134

End of 2009, China's crude oil processing capacity of 4.9 one billion tons / year, ranking second in the world. Meanwhile, the domestic million-ton oil refining bases has reached 17, the initial formation of the Bohai Sea, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta cluster of three refinery. The competitiveness of state-owned holding company significantly enhanced, Sinopec and PetroChina are among the world top 500 enterprises in 2009 the first 9 and 13.

In the brilliant achievements, we must clearly recognize that sustainable development of China's refining industry is facing enormous challenges, we must seriously consider China's oil refining industry in sustainable development.

After the oil age, oil refining industry to adhere to sustainable development

Sinopec Chinese Academy of Engineering Senior Advisor Cao Xianghong

After half a century of development, China's oil refining industry undergoing tremendous changes, as supported by the sustained, healthy development of an important force. Making the total mass and the same time, China's oil refining industry rely on technological innovation, and accelerate structural adjustments and refining the implementation of large-scale integration devices, competitiveness and improve the overall ability to resist risks.

Even if the petroleum and petrochemical industry in such a period of vigorous development, we should look at themselves, face decreasing oil production may be the fact.

Oil production was "bell curve"

In 1956, the American Petroleum geologists MKHubbert that "peak oil" concept. He believes that the world oil production will reach the maximum value at a certain time, then gradually decreased until the supply dried up, has a "bell curve" feature.

This view is gradually being confirmed. 80 years of the 20th century, the world's annual oil consumption of large oil fields discovered in the year of proven recoverable reserves. After the situation has not improved: the 20th century, 90 years, the world's total proven oil fields discovered recoverable reserves of only 30% of consumption.

Oil production show "bell curve", while oil demand growth. Industry experts predict that by 2030, world oil demand from the current 8,600 barrels / day increased to 1.18 million barrels / day.

When world oil production peak, after the official arrival of the post-petroleum era.

The date the arrival of the post-petroleum era

U.S. Joint Forces Command in February released "joint operations" report that by 2015, the world daily oil shortfall may reach 1000 million barrels / day. Even optimistic estimates, world oil production will peak in 2030.

From the global oil exploration situation, the peak of world oil reserves discovered in the 20th century, 60 years, after which the newly discovered oil and gas exploration continue to reduce the number, size also shrinking: 1923 to 1950 of 1.1 billion to 123 million tons of oil equivalent, 1950 033 million in 1980 to 0.41 billion tons of oil equivalent; from 1980 to 2004 was 0.06 billion to 011 million tons of oil equivalent.

Difficult to see from the exploration, new oil discovery in recent years, mostly in the sea, but also deep sea exploration and development is very difficult.

Production from the existing situation, 90% of world oil has matured, a large number of post-peak oil production has experienced declining. New production fields must make up the old oil fields is declining, an increase of more oil, to meet the "growing appetite for" the world's oil demand.

2030, if you want to maintain current oil production, the need to increase the 4,500 barrels / day Shengchannengli, the equivalent of four Saudi-Arabia's oil production capacity.

Prices reflect supply and demand imbalance ups

In 2008, the oil supply imbalances, speculative capital speculation, geopolitical instability in oil producing countries such as the role of various factors, the international oil prices climbed to 147 U.S. dollars / barrel.

September 2008, the financial crisis shrinking global oil product demand, international oil prices fell sharply. Since the second half of 2009, the global economy warming, the gradual rise in international oil prices in recent months in the 75 dollars to 85 dollars / barrel hovering.

At present, China's recoverable resources of conventional oil was 212 million tons, 39% proven, exploration is still in the middle on the mature stage, China is expected over the next 20 to 25 years, the average annual additional recoverable reserves of 180 million ~ 200 million tons. However, the grade of proven reserves declining, low permeability, low permeability, to increase the proportion of heavy oil reserves, has developed into the high water the whole field, high-recovery phase.

In the long run, oil as a scarce resource, after the oil age and the price of oil refining industry is facing the challenge of resources is inevitable.

   Countermeasures:

First, many to improve utilization of oil resources

With the post-petroleum era, more and more valuable oil resources and rational use of oil resources should be fully valued.

Optimization of machining processes

Period of low oil prices, refinery input and low decarburization type, Jiagongchengben low, so most of the enterprises of oil refining process route selection based decarburization. In general, the decarburization type refinery gasoline and diesel is lower than the yield of hydrogen-based refinery. The current high oil prices into the age of petrochemical enterprises should be vigorously developed gas oil, residue hydrotreating or hydrocracking technology, strict control and the phasing out of coking residue.

Integrated development of IGCC and refining

In addition to large-scale use of hydrogen refining process, but also consume a large amount of fuel gas, steam and electricity, and these supplies often come from oil. IGCC based on coal and natural gas-based integrated gasification combined cycle, to provide hydrogen for refineries, thermal energy, etc., and to improve utilization of oil resources.

Support the development of diesel cars

Compression-ignition diesel engines than spark ignition gasoline engine efficiency 30% higher than gasoline cars, diesel cars more fuel-efficient, and the advantages of carbon dioxide emissions.

Although small diesel car exhaust pollutants particulate matter (PM) emissions of more, but can be improved by improving the quality of diesel engine technology to solve this problem. China's oil refining industry and the automotive industry should join hands to promote the development of diesel cars, making efficient use of oil resources.

 

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